Cheney: Iraq to be self-governing by 2009

Cheney: Iraq to be self-governing by 2009
By: Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei and John F. Harris Dec 5, 2007 03:54 PM EST

Vice President Cheney today predicted Iraq will be a self-governing democracy by the time he leaves office, calling the current U.S. surge strategy “a remarkable success story” that will be studied for years to come.

In an interview with Politico, Cheney offered a remarkably upbeat view of Iraq, despite continued violence and political paralysis in the war-torn nation.

Cheney, who has been widely criticized for overly optimistic — and sometime flat wrong — projections in the past, sounded as confident as ever that the Bush administration will achieve its objectives in Iraq.

“I am fairly confident we’ll have [Iraq] in a good place, where we’ll be able to look back on it and say, 'That was the right decision. It was a sound decision going into Iraq,'” Cheney told us in a 40-minute White House interview.

Sounding a note of caution, the vice president said: "We've got a lot of work to do। We're sort of halfway through the surge, in a sense. We'll be going back to pre-surge levels over the course of the next year."

But Cheney said that by the middle of January 2009, it will be clear that “we have in fact achieved our objective in terms of having a self-governing Iraq that’s capable for the most part of defending themselves, a democracy in the heart of the Middle East, a nation that will be a positive force in influencing the world around it in the future.”

All of that by 2009? “Yes, sir,” he replied.

It was a remarkable prediction by any measure, and one that is certain to infuriate congressional Democrats.

Nearly as surprising, Cheney said he has no reason to question the intelligence released this week showing that Iran is not an imminent nuclear threat, putting him at odds with conservatives such as presidential candidate Fred Thompson of Tennessee and others who have raised doubts or disputed the findings.

“I don’t have any reason to question what the [intelligence] community has produced,” he said। “Now, there are things they don’t know. There’s always the possibility that circumstances will change. But I think they’ve done the best job they can with the intelligence that’s available.”

However, the vice president said the administration is "still concerned" about Iran's enrichment activities

"We still think there's need to continue the course we've been on to persuade the Iranians not to enrich uranium," he said. "The long pole in the tent in terms of developing nuclear weapons, traditionally, historically, has been developing fissile material, either highly-enriched uranium or plutonium. In this case, they're embarked upon the program to develop uranium, obviously."

Asked how badly the NIE would complicate the administration's strategic objectives, the vice president replied: "We don't get to say we only pursue those policies if they're easy. It's very important, I think, and the President clearly does, that we proceed down the road of trying to persuade Iran diplomatically to give up their efforts to enrich uranium. That has not changed. There's nothing in the NIE that said we should be -- not be concerned about their enrichment activities."

Cheney said the assessment was released because “there was a general belief that we all shared that it was important to put it out — that it was not likely to stay classified for long, anyway,” he said.

Cheney said that “especially in light of what happened with respect to Iraq and the NIE on weapons of destruction,” officials wanted to be “upfront with what we knew.” He said he agreed that was “the right call.”

So you though it might leak? “Everything leaks,” he said with a chuckle.

Suggesting the intelligence has been over-interpreted in some quarters, Cheney said he thinks it’s “important to be precise in terms of what it means.”

For instance, he pointed out that the NIE “doesn’t deal with” the effort to persuade Iran to give up efforts to enrich uranium। He pointed to a footnote in the NIE that reads: “For the purposes of this Estimate, by ‘nuclear weapons program’ we mean Iran’s nuclear weapon design and weaponization work and covert uranium conversion-related and uranium enrichment-related work; we do not mean Iran’s declared civil work related to uranium conversion and enrichment.”

Cheney, in a seemingly relaxed and unhurried mood, chatted in his shirtsleeves, not wearing glasses, with his big chair swiveled to the side to meet his visitors.

His private office was dominated by a Christmas tree decorated with berries, pinecones and birds.

He talked at length about Congress for a story to be posted tomorrow morning and that will appear on the front page of Politico for Thursday’s edition.

By contrast to President Bush’s paper-free Oval Office desk, Cheney’s is a working desk, stacked with reference and reading material, including a pictorial directory for Congress and the latest issue of Politico.

On the lighter side, Cheney said he is reading “The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War,” the recently released final work of the late David Halberstam.

sumber dari : http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7227.html

IMF sees Iraq economy, oil output recovering

IMF sees Iraq economy, oil output recovering
16 Jan 2008 01:02 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - Iraq's economy is expected to find stability in 2008-2009 despite political and security problems as oil production recovers and the government moves ahead with reforms, the IMF said.

Mohsin Khan, director of the International Monetary Fund's Middle East and Central Asia department, said that Iraqi gross domestic product (GDP) growth would likely top seven percent this year and hold between 7 and 8 pct in 2009.

Oil production, which accounts for 70 pct of the war-ravaged country's GDP activity, is expected to increase "at least" by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2008, he said in a news teleconference.

The IMF estimates Iraq produced two million bpd in 2006-2007.

Khan said the IMF's full-year 2007 forecast of 1.3 pct GDP growth for Iraq was based on non-oil data from the first six months and probably will be revised upward.

"There was an improvement in economic activity" in the second half of the year with an improvement in security, he said, citing "anecdotal" evidence.

Oil production picked up in the fourth quarter and retail services are improving, he said.

"We're expecting a significant jump in growth," he said.

newsdesk@thomson.com AFP/ajb COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Financial News Limited 2007. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Thomson Financial News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial News.

sumber dari : http://www.cnbc.com/id/22685207/for/cnbc

Agencies see good year for Iraq

Agencies see good year for Iraq
Thursday, 17 January 2008, 02:15 GMT

Iraq faces a period of economic growth and political progress, according to assessments by the International Monetary Fund and the UN.
The IMF sees 7% growth in 2008 and a similar rise next year, and says oil revenues from buoyant exports should be up by 200,000 barrels a day.

The UN envoy to Iraq welcomed dialogue between the Sunni and Shia communities and praised the government's work.

But analysts warn much depends on rapid progress in the next six to 12 months.

Reporting from Baghdad, the BBC's Jonny Dymond says the IMF and UN statements amount to a coincidental chorus of approval that tops off what have been, by Iraq's dismal standards, a good few weeks.

The change in the political mood is largely down to the passing of a law on Saturday, enabling some members of the Baath Party of Saddam Hussain to re-enter the military and bureaucracy, our correspondent says.

They were barred from public service by one of the first acts of the US-run Coalition Provisional Administration.

The law reversing that expulsion, combined with the sharp fall in violence in much of Iraq, has led to greater optimism.

Oil-fuelled growth

Mohsin Khan, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, said Iraqi GDP growth would likely top 7% this year and hold at between 7% and 8% next year.

"Of course all of this is conditional on oil production expansion and the security situation improving," he said.

On oil production, he forecast a rise of "at least" 200,000 barrels to 2.2m barrels per day.

Anecdotal evidence, Mr Khan added, suggests there was also an "improvement in economic activity" in the second half of 2007, combined with an improvement in security.

However, Iraq will "continue to need aid, particularly in the security area", the IMF official said.

Compliment

The UN's Staffan de Mistura said he would present a positive picture of progress in Iraq in a report to the UN Security Council despite earlier serious misgivings

"At the beginning of [2007]... we were genuinely concerned by the lack of progress on national dialogue," he told Reuters news agency by telephone.

"Today that has substantially changed. It has changed our mind from being worried or from being pessimistic."

The UN report would, he said, "compliment" Iraq's government on its work at fostering reconciliation.

"Iraq needs to maintain the momentum, 2008 is going to be a crucial year," Mr de Mistura added.

Violence continued in Iraq on Wednesday as a woman suicide bomber killed eight people in Diyala Province, and three US soldiers were shot dead in Salahaddin Province.

A wounded eyewitness in Khan Bani Saad, a town near Diyala's provincial capital Baquba, said the bomber had targeted a group of Shia worshippers.

sumber dari : http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7193174.stm